Check out TJ Lonergan's preview that includes his prediction for a changing of the guard in SOL girls' basketball.
By TJ Lonergan
Background:
Central Bucks East Assistant Coach/Statistician 2004-2009
CBAA Boys Basketball Coach 2009
PIAA Basketball Official Since 2010
With the start of the season less then a week away, it is time to look ahead to this year for girls basketball in the Suburban One League.
SOL Tournament?
One big question that has been on my mind since the end of last year has been -- Should there be an SOL tournament before the District playoffs begin? Since the cutback of games in the PIAA from 24 to 22 after the 2007-08 season, more and more conferences throughout District 1 and the Philadelphia area are playing conference tournaments to determine their respective champions as well as adding two additional games to their schedules without violating PIAA rules. So that begs the questions, should the SOL create a conference tournament at the end of the season?
There are definitely pros and cons, looking at it from a coach or an individual team’s perspective (for viewers there is no con because it just means more basketball games). One con is that instead of crowning three league champions (Continental, National, American) there would be one Suburban One League champion because there could only be one champion of the Suburban One League as a whole. This could mean that the mini-tournament/playoff would be dominated by the perennial powers Council Rock North, Cheltenham, and Central Bucks East (who haven’t lost too many league titles in the past decade). This format would make it very difficult for an average team to have a shot at winning the title if it has to go through not only one of those teams but also the possibility of all three to win a championship. Another con could be that there are so many teams in the SOL (23 teams) that would it would not be fair to name just one champion. Look at the leagues that do have a league champion system for example. The Ches-Mont League recently went to this format but only has 14 teams. Same with the PAC-10 (10 teams), the Catholic Academies League (eight teams) and the Philadelphia Catholic League (13 teams), The largest conference is 15 teams in the Central League, making 23 look crazy. To shoot for just two games to determine a champion out of 23 teams seems very unpractical. But I won’t let the Suburban One League off the hook.
There are a lot of smart coaches, athletic directors and fans out there that I am sure can come up with a system that would work. Do I have a solution? Nope, not even remotely. But I think that a solution can be created. This would only benefit the teams (with the addition of more games) and the fans of the Suburban One League (with more games between the top schools in the conference who usually don’t play each other throughout the season and with no effect on their “point standing” in the point system that is a huge factor in scheduling for coaches these days).
The King (or in this case Queen) is Dead?
Will this year be the year that the three most dominant programs of the last decade in the Suburban One League finally surrender their crowns for the first time in more than three years? It is hard to imagine a year when Central Bucks East, Cheltenham and Council Rock North don’t dominate their respective conferences (unless they are in the same conference, which was the case for C.B. East and C.R. North several years ago). These three schools have been the premiere teams in the area and in the state for so long that it's almost a default assumption for most sportswriters and fans to pencil them in as champions of the Suburban One Continental, National and American conferences come February. But with the loss of key players from each team and the talent that is coming back to the other teams within their conferences, is this the year that the juggernauts are dethroned?
It is hard to select one team to compete with Central Bucks East this season for the SOL Continental Conference crown (Central Bucks West, Central Bucks South, Souderton and North Penn are all in the running) But because of the last few years, I have to give the slight edge to North Penn, which brings back almost everyone from a team that was one win away from a second consecutive PIAA state playoff appearance, and the Maidens have come in second place the last two seasons to Central Bucks East in the Continental Conference. For most teams, this would be an amazing season, but not for North Penn. With a core group of players coming to the end of their high school basketball careers, you can bet that they will do whatever it takes to get over the hump and win the Continental championship, get a top eight seed in the District 1 tournament, and get back to the state playoffs (without having to fight for their lives to get there).
Council Rock South has been the younger sister to one of the most successful programs in the state over the last decade. But there seems to be a changing of the guard in the Council Rock School District. Council Rock South is my preseason pick to either win the district title or at the least get to the championship game against Mount St. Joseph. Slowly, under the guidance of coach Monica Stolic, this program has risen to new heights, emerging out of the shadow of its dominant sister school Council Rock North. Since Stolic’s arrival three years ago, her teams have gone a combined 57-25 (.695), earned the school's first 20-win season and PIAA state playoff appearance in 2009-10, the school’s first victory over district rival Council Rock-North last season, and have advanced to the District 1 playoffs for three consecutive years. This year’s team seems to have all of the expectations that Council Rock North is accustomed to having on their shoulders. With the dynamic duo of junior point guard Alexis Hofstaedter (William & Mary) and senior center Alex Wheatly (Princeton), as well as a young but talented group of ladies to fill out the rest of the starting rotation, the Golden Hawks are without question a team poised for great things this year.
Upper Dublin is still only a few years removed from its last District 1 and American Conference championships in 2008, and this year coach Vince Catanzaro returns almost his entire team that made it to the state playoffs last season. It is never easy to play in the same conference as Cheltenham, which has arguably been the most dominant girls basketball program in the area outside of Cardinal O’Hara and Downingtown/Downingtown-East, but this may be the year that the Lady Cardinals are able to down their biggest rivals. Upper Dublin is a very good team. They work well together (since they have been playing together for several years), can shoot the lights out, and what they lack in size they make up for with speed and athleticism. You can’t count out a Cheltenham team that has a phenomenal player like C.C. Andrews on its roster, but Upper Dublin will be giving Coach Bob Schaefer and the Lady Panthers a run for their money this season.
The SOL Continental League - Our Equivalent of The Big East Conference
No one can deny (for at least the next year or so before Pitt and Syracuse move to the ACC) that the best college basketball conference in the country is the Big East, men’s and women’s. Top to bottom, every team is competitive and there are no “easy wins." The same can be said this year of the SOL Continental Conference. Top to bottom, every team is solid, and there are not going to be “easy” wins for anyone. Just take a look at each team (in no particular order).
- North Penn: The Maidens return one of the best players in the conference and in the area in forward Steph Knauer and have come close to knocking off perennial power Central Bucks East for the title. This team has experience and talent on its side this season and will be a hard team to face once, let alone twice.
- Pennridge: The Lady Rams return everyone from last season. Granted, they did not have as successful a season as recent Pennridge teams have been accustomed to, but they did make huge strides as the season progressed, and I am sure that coach Dave Martin put his team to work this off-season. For some, this may be one of the “easy” W’s on most schedules, but don’t jump to that conclusion too quickly. If it were not for a very tough league schedule this year, I am sure that Pennridge would surprise a few people.
- Central Bucks South: Every year it seems like the Titans graduate a bunch of seniors and should take a step back, but coach Beth Mattern seems to always have her underclassmen step up when their time comes. There is a good amount of experience on this team, they are very quick and athletic and they play one of the toughest schedules in District One on top of the grueling conference schedule. So look for this team to be battle-hardened by the time the District One playoffs come around.
- Central Bucks West: The Bucks bring back everyone from last year, a team that took huge strides as the season progressed (remember, they were 0-22 not too many years ago). Coach Rakowsky has this program on the right track, and this year will be West's best shot at trying to capture its first SOL Conference championship since 1998 and making its first state playoff appearance since 2000.
- Central Bucks East: The perennial power in the SOL Continental Conference, it doesn’t look like the targets on the Patriots' backs are getting any smaller this season. Yes, they did lose two First Team All-SOL Continental selections in Courtney McManus and Melissa Remmey, but you can’t count this program out. The Patriots return six players who saw a significant amount of playing time last season, and they have a coach who has won more than 500 games in his 28 seasons on their sidelines (but, as always, I am a little biased when it comes to talking about this team).
- Souderton: The Big Red is a team that is, to put it simply, balanced. You couldn’t ask for a more “well-rounded” team than Souderton this year if you were a coach. They have everything you would want. I am sure coach Lynn Carroll is excited to see her team in action. They have experience and talent; they are balanced with quick and athletic guards that can shoot the rock as well as tall and solid posts that can dominate the paint. Souderton hasn’t won a conference championship since 2004 (before Carroll was there) and has come close in the past, so it will be exciting to see what they do this season.
- Hatboro-Horsham: The coaches at Hatboro-Horsham are “building a program,” as I heard them say throughout the summer. Each day for them is a step in the direction of building a long-lasting and winning program. They are going to take their lumps this year having to play in such a difficult conference, but the Lady Hatters will benefit from the experience they will gain. They are a scrappy team that will not roll over easily this season, regardless of who they are playing.
- Quakertown: This is another team that will be taking its lumps this season, but much like H-H, Quakertown is building a successful program one win at a time. Only a few years removed from the most talented team in Quakertown history, Coach Swavely is still rebuilding. I look forward to seeing the progress they make as the season goes on and seeing how the experience of playing in a tough conference helps this young team along the way.
The Picks
Pre-Season Coach of the Year: Monica Stolic (Council Rock South)
Pre-Season Players of the Year: C.C. Andrews (Cheltenham) and Alex Wheatly (Council Rock South)
2011-2012 Power Rankings (District 1)
1) Council Rock South
2) Mount St. Joseph
3) Spring-Ford
4) Lower Merion
5) Cheltenham
6) Upper Dublin
7) Downingtown-East
8) Souderton
9) North Penn
10) Boyertown
2011-2012 Power Rankings (Suburban One League)
1) Council Rock South
2) Cheltenham
3) Upper Dublin
4) Souderton
5) North Penn
6) Central Bucks East
7) Central Bucks West
8) Council Rock North
9) Central Bucks South
10) Abington
*TJ can be contacted at tjl34@pitt.edu with feedback and comments on the article*
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