High school basketball beat writers Kevin Cooney, Todd Thorpe and Scott Huff give their take on the upcoming District One AAAA Tournament. Cooney is the high school basketball writer for the Bucks County Courier Times while Thorpe covers high school basketball for the Intelligencer. Huff is the basketball beat writer for SuburbanOneSports.com. Check back for their predictions and perspectives before each round.
SuburbanOneSports.com: What is your overall reaction to this year’s field of 32 in the District One AAAA Tournament?
Kevin Cooney: It’s Chester and everybody else this year. This is the type of year we all expected. This was not a classic District One year. This was not going to be a year where you have four or five teams that could upset Chester. There are two, maybe three that have a chance - maybe Lower Merion because of the (coach) Gregg Downer factor and maybe Coatesville because they can match up a little bit with them.
When it comes down to the Suburban One League, Central Bucks West was very good for the regular season, but obviously, there’s some question about how they’re going to do long term as far as in this tournament.
It’s funny – are the 32 best teams in the field? Yes, there’s nobody on the outside looking in that I think should have been there. Downingtown West is the 32nd team, and they’re at 11-11 and had a power ranking of 7.15. The next team is Perk Valley, who is 12-10 and had a power ranking of 7.14. Perky Valley’s opponents’ winning percentage was 43 percent. Downingtown West was 46 percent. It just comes down to who did you beat?
Every other team behind Perk Valley is under .500. Bayard Rustin (9-13) is 34, Haverford (10-12) is 35. Sorry, it’s just not going to happen. In that sense, are the best teams in it? Yes, I think so.
It used to be easy to pick on the power rankings, but in the men’s game more than the women’s game, the power rankings tend to get it right a lot more. Is there a game where a 20 seed wins a game against a nine seed? Yes, there is, but would I suspect that’s going to happen this year? No.
Todd Thorpe: On paper, it certainly looks like the power points system did the job as well as it possibly could. There’s little arguing that Chester, Lower Merion and Coatesville deserved the top three spots, and even the teams whose bubble burst don’t really have a legitimate gripe. The system, which tends to be heavily weighed toward games won, does have checks and balances when it comes to the quality of the wins and the overall strength of schedule.
Locally, Pennridge finished 11-11 and ended up as one of the odd teams out. It’s unfortunate for the Rams, who played very well over the last couple weeks of the season, upsetting Souderton, winning four of their last five games and taking No. 4 seed Central Bucks West to overtime. But the reality is their nonleague schedule wasn’t the strongest, they had a losing record in the league and they lost a ton of close games.
In contrast, Harry S. Truman earned the No. 30 seed with a 10-12 record, but among those wins included ones over Cheltenham, Pennsbury and Abington, so the Tigers probably belonged in the tournament.
As far as some of the local teams, Central Bucks West earned the No. 4 seed, but didn’t get an easy draw by any stretch. If the Bucks get by West Chester East in the opening-round Friday, they could potentially see Cheltenham, which handed them one of their two losses back in December, in the second round and then a quarterfinal against potentially Wissahickon.
Central Bucks South gets a rematch at Council Rock North and will have to play very well and reverse what happened in an 18-point loss in December. Souderton could then end up seeing CR North in the second round, and that could be a heck of a game.
Scott Huff: The district field is wide open – after you concede the district championship to Chester – this could be called the Chester Invitational – Parity between the # 2 and # 32 seeds is as close as it has ever been – the only surprise to me would be that there will not be any huge surprises once the tournament begins. The parity not only exists between the teams within the leagues – but within the leagues themselves – the Central, Ches-Mont National and American, PAC – Del-Val – and the three SOL Conferences are pretty much equal.
SuburbanOneSports.com: In your opinion, who are the teams to watch in the tournament?
Kevin Cooney: Let me start with Bensalem. Bensalem is ranked as a 12 seed, but they got hot late in the year. They’ve added some stability after being very inconsistent early. They were 14-8 for the season, and you’re like, ‘That’s not that great,’ but then you realize their opponents’ winning percentage is 56.2, which is among the highest in the tournament. It’s the fifth highest one in the tournament behind only Chester, Norristown, PW and Penn Wood. To me, that tells you something about the teams that they played. They played a lot of good teams. They had a very high power rating. I think they’re more likely to succeed than a Wissahickon that plays in a weaker conference. If the brackets hold, Wissahickon is going to be playing Bensalem in the second round. Something I will watch for – is Bensalem’s non-league strength enough to carry them over a Wissahickon team that might be a little more talented? That will be a second-round matchup I will be really interested to see. Bensalem is a team to watch.
Council Rock North is interesting because they have struggled down the stretch. Without their huge win over Norristown, they could have fallen back to a 10 or 11 seed. Instead, they’re a seven, they avoid Chester until the final, and they could make a run here.
Beyond that, do I think there will be a ton of surprises? No.
Scott Huff:Team to watch– Chester. The king of the mountain – again.
SuburbanOneSports.com: Do you see any surprise teams or any first round upsets?
Kevin Cooney: Upper Dublin could beat Cheltenham. That’s a division game, and Cheltenham has been a little up and down. You’re only talking a separation of one game. Would it stun me if Upper Dublin beat Cheltenham? No. As a matter of fact, I’ll go on the record and pick Upper Dublin in that game.
Glen Mills is a dangerous 28 for Wissahickon. Yes, they’re 10-12, and I know people will freak out thinking I’m picking on Wissahickon, but Glen Mills has played opponents with a win percentage of 57.76 percent. A .500 record for a team that’s playing against teams with almost a 58 percent winning percentage, that’s pretty good. There’s a lot of talent there. Wissahickon plays in the American Conference, a conference that has a couple of AAA teams. I’m not totally convinced about them. That could be an upset, but I’ll pick Wissahickon kind of hesitantly. Ironically, their first two games could be tougher than their semifinal game if they get that far.
Plymouth Whitemarsh – Conestoga is an interesting game because of PW’s name. PW has also played a tougher schedule. Jim Donofrio will probably find a way to win that one.
Souderton – West Chester Henderson will be interesting, but I think Souderton wins.
Those are games to watch, but there will probably be one that jumps out at us on Friday night and we’ll all go, ‘Whoa…’
Todd Thorpe: Abington may be a surprise team. Should the Ghosts get by No. 22 Marple-Newtown on Friday, they could see sixth-seeded Great Valley, which many feel is the weakest of the top eight seeds. Then Abington could potentially see Coatesville in the quarterfinals, and I don’t think that’s an unwinnable game.
Would No. 18 Plymouth Whitemarsh over No. 15 Conestoga really be considered an upset? Other than that, there appears to be a pretty firm line over the haves and have nots in this field.
Scott Huff: Biggest first round upset – Even though I have Coatesville in the final eight, I wouldn’t be shocked if #30 Truman beats the #3 Red Raiders. Also, #18 Plymouth Whitemarsh could ‘upset’ # 15 Conestoga, and how about #20 Upper Dublin finally closing out a win over #13 Cheltenham?
Surprise team - Abington. The Ghosts fell into what I think might be a great seed at # 11. Abington should be able to compete with both # 3 Coatesville and # 6 Great Valley on its way to the district final four. The Ghosts may ironically be a final four team in the SOL National Conference behind CR North, Pennsbury, and Bensalem – and a final four team in the entire district.
SuburbanOneSports.com: Which teams do you think will advance to the state tournament?
Kevin Cooney: 1. Chester, 2. Lower Merion, 3. Coatesville, 4. Bensalem
The rest of the top nine: Council Rock North, Abington, Central Bucks West, Pennsbury, Wissahickon
Todd Thorpe: 1. Chester, 2. Lower Merion, 3. Wissahickon, 4.Coatesville, 5.Council Rock North, 6.Pennsbury, 7.Central Bucks West, 8.Abington, 9. Plymouth Whitemarsh
Scott Huff: Final Four – Chester, Wissahickon, Council Rock North, and Abington. The remainder of the field – Pennsbury, Central Bucks West, Lower Merion, Coatesville, and Souderton. (The only sure bet, though, is Chester)
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