TJ Lonergan shares his insights as the SOL season heads down the homestretch.
By: T.J. Lonergan
Central Bucks East Assistant Coach/Statistician 2004-2009
CBAA Boys Basketball Coach 2009
PIAA Basketball Official Since 2010
We have reached somewhat of a halfway point in the young season of girls’ basketball in the Suburban One League, so here are some thoughts on what is happening so far.
More Then Just a Game
Last Thursday, the Central Bucks East Girls Basketball team suffered a horrible loss with the passing away a fellow teammate, Morgan Mysza. Morgan was battling brain cancer for many years. She courageously fought since she was 11 years old and should be idolized for her inspirational fight to beat this disease. She had saved all of her energy - not participating in soccer this year - just so she could play basketball and be a part of the CB East girls basketball team. She worked tirelessly to not only fight this disease but to become the best basketball player she could. She was the finest, most courageous young women I have ever had the chance to know (and coach for a summer) and should be remembered for her hard work, dedication, and continued resolve in fighting cancer.
Basketball is just a game, and sometimes we forget that. For this young group of ladies, it has become much more then just a game because they have lost a friend.
I think Coach Jim Valvano put it best when he said that, "Cancer can take away all of my physical abilities. It cannot touch my mind, it cannot touch my heart, and it cannot touch my soul. And those three things are going to carry on forever." Please keep the Mysza Family in your thoughts and prayers this basketball season.
The Chaos Theory
Simply put, the chaos theory states that although things may appear to be chaotic or in a state of chaos, patterns will begin to develop and what seemed to be chaos will make logical sense. Right now, the Suburban One League (and District One) seems to be in a state of chaos. You have teams who should beat certain teams losing to them, teams doing very well that were not expected to, and my favorite assessment tool of a team the transient property (team 1 beats team 2 by so many points, so team 1 should beat team 3 by so many points since team 3 lost to team 2, etc.), being completely thrown out the window. But out of this chaos will come some sort of logic.
This season can be summed up as having no great team in the district (aside from CR-South and Cheltenham). After CR-South, Cheltenham, and possibly Upper Dublin in the SOL, everyone else seems to fall into the same category. Any team on any night could knock off one another. Which for fans of the league equals great basketball to watch, but for coaches in the league it equals gray hair and more stress.
The point that I am trying to make is simply this. Just because a team had more losses than you expected does not mean that team is necessarily a bad or mediocre team. It just means that all of the teams out there, except for a select few, are at the same level. And come district playoff time, I expect the SOL to have a very, very good year.
How Does Everything Shake Out?
I know that it is only mid-January and there is a lot of basketball still left to play; therefore, it would take a crazy person to think that they could make predictions on what could happen. So I won’t go that far, I am not that crazy, but I will give some thoughts on how the conferences are looking thus far.
SOL American:
Will anyone challenge Cheltenham or Upper Dublin? That is the question that is on everyone’s mind when they look at the SOL American Conference. The two expected challengers were Plymouth Whitemarsh and Norristown. Thus far both teams have played solid competition and played them hard, but will that translate into being competitive enough to potentially knock off Cheltenham or Upper Dublin? I do not see that happening. I think both Plymouth Whitemarsh and Norristown are scrappy, hard working teams but are in the unfortunate situation of being in a conference with two of the top five teams in District One. At the midway point of the SOL season, Upper Merion, a Class AAA school, actually has a stronghold on third place, ahead of both Norristown and Plymouth Whitemarsh. The next big conference game for the SOL American Conference will be on Thursday to see if Cheltenham can take the conference crown outright or split it with Upper Dublin.
SOL National:
Can CR-North or Abington push CR-South for the conference title? CR-South, at this point, looks untouchable. The Golden Hawks have cruised passed every local team they have played, and when they have needed to step up to win a game, they have (this was clearly demonstrated over the holidays with them winning the very competitive Diamond State Classic in Delaware, as well as picking up wins against Abington and CR-North the first time around). I don’t see things changing as the season progresses. CR-South should go undefeated and most likely get the second seed in the playoffs (if Cheltenham also goes undefeated because they have a slightly better strength of schedule by records of opponents, which is a big factor in the power rankings). For CR-North and Abington, I think they have had their shot and are now gunning for second. Both played them at their home courts, and CR-South is not an easy place to play. Although both teams are getting better and more confident as the season goes along, so is CR-South.
SOL Continental:
It is early, so North Penn and Souderton, the preseason favorites to win the conference, should not be alarmed that they have fallen to the middle of the pack of the SOL Continental Conference. The most surprising story thus far is the rise of the rest in the SOL Continental. CB South currently sits at 5-2 in the conference with huge wins over Souderton and North Penn under their belts. CB West, although at 4-3 in the conference, was leading by 7 and 8 over Souderton and North Penn respectively going into the fourth quarter before falling to those two teams. I have to give a lot of credit to both coaches - Coach Beth Mattern at CB South and Coach Terry Rakowsky at CB West. South did not have a lot of expectations coming into this season with all the focus on North Penn and Souderton, and they have silenced all the critics and have made a believer out of me (makes me proud to be an alumni). And with CB West, I still have the image of where they were just a few years ago and I can say that this program has done a complete 180 degrees. CB West and CB South are here to stay too with the young talent that is coming up for them.
How will it shake out? Who knows. This is by far the most competitive conference in the Philadelphia area (in terms of teams being evenly matched top to bottom). On any given night the fifth place team in the conference could knock off the top team in the conference. All I can say is that the next month is going to be a fun one to watch and a stressful one for those who are competing in this conference. The positive news is that come playoffs this conference should be battle tested and should go deep into the district and maybe even state playoffs.
The Point System
I am sure that everyone is probably sick of hearing my distaste for the point system as a whole, but I think that this year it will be more evident than in years past how the point system should not be the only measuring stick for a team’s ranking for the playoffs. Teams such as Abington, North Penn, CR-North, CB South, and CB West will not only be hit hard for going out and playing a tough non-conference schedule but also for being in a very tough conference. As things continue to play out, keep an eye on those teams and the teams from other conference throughout District One. So far, Mount St. Joseph’s (who plays a weak non-conference schedule but plays in a tough league) should cruise to a top 5 seed but also look out for the Central League teams and the Chest-Mont League teams who do not play strong competition and beat up on each other to steal top seeds away from SOL teams that go out ant play good competition.
Again, do I have the answer? No. But there should be a serious reevaluation on how the rankings are handed down.
SOL Challenge
Some very good match ups on the slate for this competitive weekend in the SOL. With the changing to the point system, some of the traditional rivalries, high profile rivalries have faded away (Cheltenham vs. CR-North, CB East vs. Cheltenham, CR-North vs. CB East, CR-South vs. North Penn), but this is a weekend to hopefully create new rivalries or to rekindle old ones.
Top 5 Games of the Weekend:
1) Cheltenham vs. Abington- Two very similar styles of play going at each other here. Both teams are quick, aggressive, and athletic, and it will be interesting to see who will come out on top. Plus you have two of the premier players in the SOL facing off against each other in Aiyannah Peal (Abington) and CC Andrews (Cheltenham).
2) CR-South vs. CB East- The top two schools from the SOL National and Continental square off in a rivalry that dates back to CR-South’s creation and has grown every year since.
3) Upper Dublin vs. CB South- A continued rivalry over the last few years, this will be a great matchup with both teams being very similar in the height column on their rosters.
4) North Penn vs. CR-North- A rematch of last years district playoff second round game will be a very physical inside battle. The question for CR-North will be if they can stop the duo of Steph Knauer and Lauren Crisler from dominating inside.
5) Pennsbury vs. Souderton- This will be a big game for both teams in terms of seeding for the district tournament. This would be a huge win for a Pennsbury team that has been up and down all year but has played every team very competitively, and would be a decisive win for Souderton, potentially helping the Indians get into the teen-category and out of the twenties.
2011-2012 Power Rankings (District 1) (Records as of 1-16-12)
1) Council Rock-South (13-0, 6-0)
2) Cheltenham (13-0, 5-0)
3) Spring-Ford (11-2, 6-0)
4) Upper Dublin (11-2, 5-1)
5) Mount St. Joseph (12-1, 6-0)
6) Downingtown-West (10-2, 5-0)
7) CB East (10-3, 5-0)
8) CB South (10-3, 5-1)
9) Abington (9-4, 5-1)
10) North Penn (8-4, 4-2)
2011-2012 Power Rankings (Suburban One League) (Records as of 1-16-12)
1) Council Rock-South (13-0, 6-0)
2) Cheltenham (13-0, 5-0)
3) Upper Dublin (11-2, 5-1)
4) CB East (10-3, 5-0)
5) CB South (10-3, 5-1)
6) Abington (9-4, 5-1)
7) North Penn (8-4, 4-2)
8) Souderton (7-4, 4-2)
9) Council Rock-North (7-5, 4-2)
10) CB West (8-5. 3-3)
*TJ can be contacted at tjl34@pitt.edu with feedback and comments on the article.
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