CB South alum T.J. Lonergan, a sophomore at the University of Pittsburgh, remains an avid follower of girls’ basketball in the SOL, and he offers his take on the upcoming state tournament. T.J. served as a CB East assistant coach/statistician from 2004-09. He also was a CBAA boys’ basketball coach in 2009. T.J. has been a PIAA basketball official since 2010.
By T.J. Lonergan
Well, we have come to the middle of the road in the playoff season for the teams out there that are still alive, and here are my thoughts on what has happened and will happen as the playoffs continue on. I wish all of the Suburban One teams still alive out there best of luck as they move forward into the playoffs!Why are the girls’ semifinals at Norristown HS instead of Villanova?
I understand that the girl’s semifinals don’t bring in the crowds like the boy do, but is it fair for the girls to be playing at Norristown HS while the boys play at Villanova? District 3 has both girls and boys play their semifinal games at the Giant Center, so way doesn’t District 1, the biggest district in the state? I understand that the district is under a lot of financial restraints, but I feel like there are a number of solutions that could either make the situation equal to the boys at Nova or at least an improvement from Norristown.
The size of Norristown is what makes it such an appealing site for District 1, but why not at a local college/university other then Nova. For example, West Chester, Gwyneed-Mercy, St. Joe’s, or La Salle or even at another high school, like Spring-Ford, which I consider to have the best high school basketball gyms in the District and even the state by far (if it is good enough to host the state 4A semifinals, I think it is good enough to host the District 1 semifinals).
I know that there are many arguments that would shoot down what I am saying right now from distance to these schools or Spring-Ford and the cost of getting other venues compared to the money that these games would generate. All I am trying to say is that District 1 should make a greater effort, making the District 1 semifinals just as exciting as the boy’s semifinals, because they are just as important. I know that I will not be able to singlehandedly change this biased tradition, but my hope is that this will start the conversation that will help create a change. These girls work just as hard as the boys do and should be able to be rewarded just like they are rewarded, with the respect of a high quality venue to play some of the most competitive and important games of the year and their high school careers.
Hershey Park vs. Penn State
Is anyone else still upset that the state championship is held at Penn State instead of at Hershey? I know that I am a little biased, me being a Pitt Panther and all, but still. For some reason Hershey just had a different feel to it that I think Penn State doesn’t have. It was very unfortunate that the PIAA couldn’t come to a financial understanding with the Giant Center at Hershey Park to try and keep the championship there a few years ago. I do realize that for the teams that have made it to Penn State for the championship game in recent years may disagree with me, but Hershey just seemed more glamorous. To me Penn State seems bland and generic, while Hershey was enchanting and, in a way, had a romanticized feel to it. You could come up with a number of catchy phrases trying to get to Hershey, which Penn State doesn’t really cater too. Hershey was just the unofficial center of PIAA championships since its creation, and moving the basketball championships to Penn State just doesn’t feel right in my stomach. The only thing I can do is to hope for the best, that PIAA will change their contract back to Hershey when it expires with Penn State.
Separate State Tournaments For Private Schools?
As another state playoff is going to begin with the Philadelphia Catholic League involved in it, the question is whether this is good or bad for the state championship? I predict that there will be at least one private school in this year’s final (either the Mount or Archbishop Carroll), making it the third consecutive year that a Catholic school has made it to the state 4A finals since the Philadelphia Catholic League joined the PIAA. This added onto the fact that Archbishop Wood is in great position to win its second consecutive state 3A championship.
So this begs the question of whether the PIAA should adopt the same system that New Jersey uses for its state tournament, having two separate tournaments (private school and public school), and when they are all crowned, they play in a “Tournament of Champions” to determine the overall champion. This model seems to be the best that I have seen for this particular scenario. The dominance by these private schools provokes the argument that they are enabling public schools - which can’t draw from different areas - from having a good chance to win a state tournament. This system could also allow schools like Germantown Academy or the Hill School to join the PIAA and compete for a state championship as they have been so desperately wanting to do. How the PIAA would figure this system would be challenging, but I think that it is possible.
The Picks
This season’s bracket is as competitive as any in the past several years. There are no real locks in my mind, so expect some extremely competitive games from the first round until the final this March. Yes, I believe the hold adage “you have to play the best to be the best” is true, but not come playoff time. The teams that will go far will be the teams that have a good position in a bracket that is set up in a way that does not make a lot of sense to me. But, in any case, here is what I think will happen in this years PIAA State Playoffs:
Mount St. Joseph’s: 1st Seed from District 1
The Mount is by far the hottest team coming into the PIAA Playoffs, winning every district playoff game by 20 or more points. But does that mean that I think they are a lock to get to the Bryce Jordan Center come March 26th? No. Yes, they had a great run to win the district title, but they did catch a break with their bracket and with CR North’s Lauren Gold going down with an injury before their district final game. They avoided Cheltenham, Lower Merion, and Central Bucks East; all of whom I think would have given them problems from Cheltenham’s great pressure defense to Lower Merion’s size inside and CB East’s aggressive zone defenses. But that being said, they did handle Upper Dublin and a Downingtown-East team that I thought would give them more competitive games.
I do see Mount going very far, but I don’t think their road will be an easy one. Their first round against Harrisburg, which is always a quality team in the state tournament, then Cheltenham, which will be the best game of the second round, then Boyertown in the quarterfinals and then finally Archbishop Carroll in the semifinals. I see them going no farther then Carroll, their man-to-man is not as good as Carroll’s; the only way they have a shot against Carroll is to change his (coach John Miller’s) mentality of man-to-man and shake things up. Carroll runs its man offense better than any team in Pennsylvania.
Council Rock-North: 2nd Seed from District 1
I don’t think anyone who was at the Pavilion at Villanova last Friday night realized how much Lauren Gold meant to the CR North offense and defense. She is clearly the catalyst of the team; the key to start the engine that was the juggernaut of District 1. But the good news for CR North is that Coach Lou Palkovics had one week to readjust his team. The bad news for CR North is that their draw is not the most kind to them. Their first round game is against a talented Daniel Boone team that had some difficulty once they reached the District 3 playoffs. After that, they will face Philadelphia Catholic League powerhouse Cardinal O’Hara. And if they were to get past that, they will most likely face the District 3 Champ Red Lion and then after that two-time defending state champions Mount Lebanon, and that’s before they get to the finals where they potentially will face Archbishop Carroll. So to put it bluntly, CR North would have had a tough road even with Lauren Gold not on the sidelines, making them one of my earlier exit pickers this season, something I did not imagine was possible almost two weeks ago.
Downingtown East: 3rd Seed from District 1
Downingtown East is another team that doesn’t have an easy road to the state championship. The Cougars first round game against Lebanon looks like a lock, but after that they will face Archbishop Carroll. I see them going no farther then the second round because of where they fall in the state bracket. But I would not be surprised if Coach Bob Schnure is able to put together a game plan to give Carroll a run for its money.
Lower Merion: 4th Seed from District 1
The challenge for Lower Merion will come in the second round. With a first round game against Liberty that looks to be a lock, the Aces will face District 3 Champ Red Lion in the second round. I think that Lower Merion’s size will give Red Lion some trouble, but their problem will come offensively, whether they can put enough points on the board to get past Red Lion. I do not see them going farther then the second round, primarily on the fact that this team has not been able to put points on the board, averaging around 36 points per game this season.
Cheltenham: 5th Seed from District 1
Cheltenham’s road to the state championship isn’t as easy as it has been in years past. Their first round game is against a good Governor Mifflin team from District 3 and their second round game would be against the Mount. They will give the Mount some difficulties with their aggressive defense, and if they were able to get past them would be a good challenge for potentially Archbishop Carroll in the semifinals. The second round game between possibly Cheltenham and the Mount would be the game of the second round in my opinion, and I would not be surprised if Coach Schaefer and the Lady Panthers were able to pull off an upset with their ultra-aggressive pressure defense.
Upper Dublin: 6th Seed from District 1
I think Upper Dublin has a very good shot to get to the state quarterfinals this year. The Flying Cardinals first round game against District 2 Champ Abington Heights may appear harder then it actually will be. Abington Heights is not the same old Abington Heights that had been dominant in the state playoffs in years past. A potential second round match up with Wilson-West Lawn, the District 3 runner-up, won’t be an easy game but is still winnable. After that they will run into Archbishop Carroll, who will end their possibly incredible run in my opinion.
Boyertown: 7th Seed from District 1
After an emotional win over Central Bucks East with a buzzer beater as time ran out, Boyertown will make a long run in this years state playoffs, in my opinion. The 7th seed is better than at least 3 or 4 other spots of higher ranked teams. I see Boyertown making it to the quarterfinals, losing to the Mount in a close one. This year District 11 is not at the same strength as it normally is (their first round game is against the District 11 champ Northampton), and their next game would be against either a Central team that was blown out of the water by Archbishop Carroll by 40 points or a Muhlenburg team that has tapered off since entering the District 3 playoffs. Their game against the Mount can be a very good one; depending mainly on whether they can shoot well/decent that night.
Central Bucks East: 8th Seed from District 1
When I think about the matchup that CB East has this Friday against Philadelphia Catholic League Powerhouse Archbishop Carroll, my mind continually thinks of the quote from the movie Miracle that Coach Herb Brooks told his team before they played the Soviet Union in the 1980 Olympic Semifinal hockey game, “If they played us 10 times they might win 9, but not tonight. Not this game.” CB East will have to pull off the almost impossible to beat a Carroll team that plays a national schedule and in what I consider to be the toughest league in the state. Everyone on Carroll would be a superstar individually on any other team in District 1 or District 12, and are either considered the frontrunner to win the state championship for 4A or at least get to the finals in almost everyone’s minds. I have faith in miracles, but I am a little biased. If CB East were to pull of this upset, it would by far be the upset of the year and potentially of the last 10 years in Philadelphia area girls’ high school basketball. All I can say is don’t count out Coach Lonergan or the Lady Patriots in this one.
Downingtown West: 9th Seed from District 1
The one plus about the 9th seed coming into the state tournament is that you come in after winning three consecutive games, and for Downingtown West, this is a big momentum boost. The Whippets first game looks like an easy win one their home court against Williamsport, but after that it gets a little more difficult since they would play the District 3 champs Red Lion. But if there was a team that could pull off an upset, it would be Downingtown West, in my opinion. Coach Johnson is a very intelligent and disciplined coach with a talented team, and if I were Red Lion after seeing what North Penn did to Central Dauphin last year in that game (losing by one with seconds remaining), I would be very concerned.
Power Rankings
1) Mount St. Joseph’s (1st Seed)
2) Council Rock-North (2nd seed)
3) Cheltenham (5th seed)
4) Downingtown-East (3rd seed)
5) Lower Merion (4th seed)
6) Upper Dublin (6th seed)
7) Boyertown (7th seed)
8) Central Bucks East (8th seed)
9) Downingtown-West (9th seed)
10) Council Rock-South
- Log in to post comments
0
