High school basketball beat writers Kevin Cooney, Todd Thorpe and Scott Huff give their take on the upcoming PIAA Class AAAA Tournament in installment of the Intelligencer/Courier Times Playoff Preview. Cooney is the high school basketball writer for the Bucks County Courier Times while Thorpe covers high school basketball for the Intelligencer. Huff is the basketball beat writer for SuburbanOneSports.com.
SuburbanOneSports.com: Kevin, you were at Council Rock North’s play-in game against Delaware Valley on Tuesday night. Share your thoughts after seeing the Indians early exit from the state tournament.
Kevin Cooney: Let’s look at this from two different perspectives. We heard so much about that PA Playaz (AAU) team all these year, and it’s amazing that it’s over, but what a bizarre senior year for those guys. Of the big three, you have Ryan Arcidiacono getting hurt and (Arron) Goodman and (Aaron) Morgan both playing very well at times. You could make an argument that both are in the Player of the Year race, but you can also look at it and say, ‘Wow, what happened down the stretch?’ They’re high school kids, and I think that’s something the community as a whole lost perspective of. We put so much pressure on 13 and 14-year-olds to act a certain way. Everybody has this storybook idea of the way the senior year is supposed to go, and everybody says, ‘Okay, this is how this group that has achieved so much at AAU is going to go,’ but it’s not that easy.
The best perspective on this came from Aaron Morgan, who said, ‘Not everybody gets to win a state title.’ When you look at the National Conference, you have gone through this era where you had (Pennsbury’s) Lavoy Allen and Dalton Pepper and now Arcidiacono, Morgan and Goodman. You have all these guys, and there’s a common thread. It shows how difficult it is to get to the final hurdle. I hope people understand that and don’t paint them with a broad brush. It also is a good warning to others going forward that maybe we should hold off on the tags and everything we put out there so easily.
It’s tough when these kids have to be perfect, which is basically what everybody and their brother thought. Overall, this group should be remembered for what they did as opposed to what they didn’t do, but it’s obviously a very frustrating end – they have gone out at home in the state playoffs two of the last three years. If people are baffled by that, I completely understand, but I don’t think it should be held against them too much.
SuburbanOneSports.com: Were there any surprises in Friday's consolation round games or the district games as a whole? What impact did those results have heading into Saturday’s opening round of the state tournament?
Kevin Cooney: Nothing really surprised me. It was kind of what we expected. Cheltenham was okay but not as good as Council Rock North. Chester was clearly number one and Lower Merion was clearly number two from the jump. Wissahickon and Abington were probably a level below it, and it was kind of a potpourri the rest of the way.
The one thing we have to look at here is that next year the tournament has been expanded to where 10 teams from District One will make it to states. I really think that some brakes should be put on this. I think we are at the point where this has grown too big and to the point where one district (District One) can have such a monopoly feel to it. Maybe it’s time they go to a regionalized system for states. We used to think it was ridiculous that teams would lose their last three games and get into states as the eighth seed. Now you’re talking about a 10th place team that lost a second round game and its last game will be getting in. That has been my big pet peeve all along. You’re going way down. This is not a great state field. You look at Chambersburg that is 18-9 and played the pigtail game to get into the District 3 Tournament and ended up winning it. Harrisburg is 19-6, and they had to play a pigtail game to get into the District 3 Tournament, and they’re the second place team. There’s a lot of mediocrity after the top teams. The top two teams are pretty clearly defined and then you go with different levels of mediocrity.
If Council Rock North had won on Tuesday, they could very easily have gone on and faced Wissahickon. They could have even gotten to the quarterfinals because they could have won two or three games in this tournament, and I think that’s what has to be so disappointing for them is that they didn’t get out of neutral.
Todd Thorpe: The balance after Chester and Lower Merion among the final 8 of District One was apparent to the point that none of the consolation round results can be considered too much of a surprise. Give Norristown a ton of credit, bouncing back from a 40-plus point blowout to beat CB West and Souderton and take fifth place. Abington claimed third with a toss-up game win over Wissahickon. Third place in District One has to be a huge feather in the Ghosts' caps for the season. As far as what it does as far as the first round of states, CB West probably hurt itself the most with back-to-back losses to Norristown and Coatesville, because now the Bucks get St. Joe's Prep and that's a very difficult game to win.
Scott Huff: The biggest surprise going into the first ground games on Saturday is the fact that Council Rock North is not one of the teams in the 32-team field. It appeared that Rock North had a good team to compete – two Division One players in Arron Goodman and Aaron Morgan – the talents of the McCloskey brothers (Matt and Kyle) – and the addition at the outset of the season of highly regarded sophomore Rip Engel who brought his talent from Roman Catholic to Newtown. Sure, the Indians won their third straight SOL National Conference championship, they had their third straight 20-win season, and they earned a trip to the state tournament ‘play-in’ game. But this team did not play its best basketball in the latter portion of the season, and with a quality head coach like Derek Wright calling the shots – it was a mystery as to why.
Norristown beating Souderton after scoring just 20 points in the first three quarters is also a baffling stat. The Eagles scored 22 points in the fourth period and won 42-36. The Indians scoring just 36 points in a varsity boys district playoff basketball game is equally baffling.
With the district playoff format the way it is constructed, the #8 seed goes into the tournament with the burden of a three-game losing streak. CB West will have to carry that weight even though the Bucks were competitive in all three of those games – that was somewhat of a surprise – not that the Bucks were competitive – but the fact that they lost all three games.
The Abington win over Wissahickon was no shocker even though the Trojans were a #5 seed and the Ghosts were a #11 seed – Abington is playing its very best basketball right now, and it might be a great wake-up call for Wissachickon.
SuburbanOneSports.com: Your comments about each of the SOL games on Friday. Do any of the SOL teams have any kind of future in states this year?
Kevin Cooney: William Penn vs. Norristown – If you look at it, this is kind of a rough road for a Norristown them that got blown out by Chester and came back to win two games to get back to fifth place, and they end up with William Penn that’s 24-5. It’s a tough, tough road. There are some things that work to their benefit, but it’s strange. You’re Norristown and get fifth place – congratulations, you get William Penn and if you win that game you get Chester. The road has a big roadblock in either the first round or second round. Norristown has done a nice job. It’s a nice story for them, and it would be big for them as a program to get to 20 wins, but I don’t know if I see it.
Central Bucks West vs. St. Joe’s Prep – West may have a little more of a hope. Miles Overton is out for St. Joe’s Prep (with an injury), and that hurts, but they have a lot of other weapons. I saw them against Archbishop Wood a couple of weeks ago – they have size, but they can beat you from the outside. Again, I think West should be commended. It’s been a heck of a season. At 22-5, they will have nothing to hang their heads over, win or lose, but I kind of think their road is blocked right here.
Souderton vs. Williamsport – It’s a long ride for Souderton. Souderton is one of those teams you look at it and say, ‘Okay, they beat Rock North, they beat Coatesville in a playback, they played with Lower Merion, but they got beat by Norristown.’ They had a pretty rough road in districts. Williamsport is obviously from a district that’s not traditionally strong, but the Millionaires have always been pretty good. Their record of 17-8 is not overly impressive. You wonder about the fatigue factor from the ride, but there’s also a ‘got nothing to lose’ factor that benefits Souderton. This is a big moment for Souderton. If they get through to the second round of states, I think it’s a huge step for the program.
Wissahickon vs. Easton – I haven’t seen Easton this year, but Wissahickon because they have such big size in the front court – I think they’re a dangerous team out of this bracket. Easton is from an area that’s not traditionally strong out of District 11. There are only two teams in that whole run to the semifinals that would scare you if you’re Wissahickon. One would be Lower Merion, and the other would be Roman Catholic. Roman may scare you more on name than actual play. I think Wissahickon wins this game, and I think Wissahickon has a strong chance to get to the quarterfinals where they will meet up with Lower Merion, and we’ll see what happens. Either way, we’re looking at Chester/Lower Merion at Bryce (Jordan), and I think Chester wins it, but I could see that game being totally different than the one at Villanova.
Abington vs. Central Dauphin – Abington ends up with Central Dauphin, which is 26-2. That’s how whacky District 3 was. You look at the way Abington played down the stretch and the way they played in the district tournament. They have one loss to Lower Merion, and they were in that game until the fourth quarter when they kind of ran out of steam. They’re going to play an up tempo game, but I don’t know if they can afford to get into a game that’s in the 70s or 80s against Central Dauphin. They need to make sure they don’t get in foul trouble. They’re not deep enough to withstand a ton of foul trouble. That’s where I think the difference is in that game.
Todd Thorpe: William Penn vs. Norristown: York-area power William Penn usually has a very strong team and despite a third-place finish in District Three a 24-5 record suggests it is tough again. It has five players averaging in double-figures and as a team averages close to 75 points a game.
St. Joe's Prep vs. CB West: Former La Salle University coach Speedy Morris has done nothing but win since returning to the high school ranks with the Prep, and he's got another strong squad, led by juniors Stephen Vasturia and Miles Overton. This looks like a really bad matchup on paper for West. Williamsport vs. Souderton: The long trip won't help Souderton, but the Indians have beaten the likes of CR North and Coatesville on the road and played Lower Merion tough on the road, in recent weeks. It's a toss-up game, as the Millionaires are excellent defensively, but not one Souderton can't win.
Wissahickon vs. Easton: Easton cannot be discounted here, as they have a third-place win over Emmaus in the District 11 tourney. But the Trojans should hold the advantage in the matchups as Jordan Reed and Tanoh Kpassagnon should have their way in the paint.
-Abington vs. Central Dauphin: The Ghosts' reward for taking third in the districts is a matchup with a team that ranked in the top five in the state all season. The Rams, led by 6-9 Wake Forest-bound forward Devin Thomas, were upset in the District Three quarterfinals, and that's why they have to travel to Warminster for a first-round date with Abington.
Scott Huff: In talking with coaches all season long, you got the feeling that this wasn’t the deepest basketball talent pool in the SOL. And I get the feeling that the talent pool isn’t that profound throughout the state, and we will get the chance to find out when the state tournament begins this Saturday.
Norristown brings its pressure defense to each game, but the Eagles have been hard pressed all season to develop a consistent offense. Defense can win playoff games, and Norristown will have to play well defensively to beat William Penn (York) if it wants to advance to a second round game with Chester.
CB West has an extremely difficult draw against St. Joe Prep, and we have to wait and see which Souderton team shows up against Williamsport – the team that scored 70 points against a good CR North or the Souderton team that could score just 36 points against Norristown.
Wissahickon will have its hands full with Easton at William Tennent, while Abington gets the second game at William Tennent and received a tough draw with District Three power Central Dauphin which was upset in its district playoffs by Harrisburg.
SuburbanOneSports.com: Your predictions for the Class AAAA Tournament.
Kevin Cooney: First round picks: Chester, William Penn, Coatesville, Central Dauphin East, St. Joe’s Prep, Abington, Williamsport, Harrisburg, Chambersburg, Wissahickon, Lower Merion, Roman Catholic, Gateway, Shaler, Pittsburgh Central Catholic, Erie Cathedral Prep
Final: Chester over Lower Merion
Todd Thorpe: First Round picks: Chester William Penn, Coatesville, Bartrum, St. Joe's Prep, Central Dauphin, Souderton, Harrisburg, Chambersburg, Wissahickon, Lower Merion, Roman Catholic, Gateway, Shaler, State College, Erie Cathedral Prep
Semifinalists: Chester, Central Dauphin, Lower Merion, Gateway
Final: Chester beats Lower Merion
Scott Huff: Prediction for the state final: A repeat of the District One final with Chester versus Lower Merion.
First round predictions: Norristown, Souderton, Wissahickon, and Abington could all manage a way to survive the first round, but I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them move on - while the season should come to a close for Central Bucks West.
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